Only Nostradamus could truly predict the future, but so much of what he wrote was in code (and all of it in French) that no one can be certain what he meant.
Today’s predictions about the future may not be as accurate as those of Nostradamus, but they are much more clearly understood. They are also based on statistical analysis, computer generated projections, and forecasts based on scientific evidence rather than a crystal ball.
Using these more scientific methods, feed industry experts can envision the major influencers in the feed industry future. So, following on from part one’s ‘A Vision of The Feed Industry’s Future’ (which focused on feed ingredients) here are the top trends, laws, and processes that will affect the feed industry over the coming decades.
Click to read A Vision of The Feed Industry’s Future: Part 1 Ingredients.
1. Growing Population and Increased Meat Consumption.
The UN predicts “The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.” With so many more hungry people, it is obvious that demand for animal feed will grow.
Significantly, more and more people will be able to afford to have meat in the diet as global population wealth is also projected to increase. This will lead to a rise in meat consumption. A recent PWC report stated that, “We project the world economy to grow at an average of just over 3% per annum in the period 2014 – 50, doubling in size by 2037 and nearly tripling by 2050.”
The result is many more animals will need feeding, as this data by Statista shows.
Per capita meat consumption worldwide in 2015 and 2030 by type (in kg).
2. Increased Concerns over the Environment, Emissions, and Climate Change.
As public and political awareness of mankind’s impact on the planet grows, so has awareness of the agricultural industry’s part of that impact. Popular headlines over the threat to the ozone layer posed by methane gas emissions from cattle, coupled with the growth of the circular economy, and the desire for all industries to be sustainable are impacting the public image of the feed industry.
As a recent AllTech report published in the Journal of Applied Animal Nutrition, notes, “As feed companies continue to be more consumer-oriented, so their focus on sustainability and their environmental footprint grows. Greenhouse gas emission and environmental impacts of animal production will all be considered, and will push feed mill and farm efficiency forward.”
3. Closer Scrutiny of the Feed Industry.
For many years now, there has been growing concern over the ethics of the livestock and poultry industry. More and more consumers are asking questions such as, “How are animals treated?” “How are they slaughtered?” “How is meat packed?” And most significantly for feed producers, “What are animals being fed?”
People are increasingly aware that what animals eat and how they are raised affects the meat that they consume, and in turn affects human health.
The growth in public appreciation of the feed industry’s role in the food chain has led to closer government scrutiny of industry practices, increased media attention, and a larger body of legislation impacting the feed industry.
As Donavyn Coffey, a scholar at AllTech’s Research Center in Kentucky, USA observes, “Food safety continues to be a serious concern as today's feed may contain hazards, such as heavy metals, high dioxin levels, PCB's and mycotoxins. All of these toxins have the potential to enter the food chain via animal feed. Food quality will continue to be a priority for many consumers and companies, putting it at the forefront of feed manufacturing.”
However, she is hopeful that technology will play an increasing role in ‘raising the bar’ on feed safety standards, stating that, “Analytical systems have been developed to quantitatively and qualitatively detect the presence of such hazards in feed. Over time these methods will become more sophisticated and provide more rapid results, allowing the industry and government to react to ensure food safety.”
4. Hi -Tech Feed Production
Feed industry experts are predicting that feed production and feed additive supply will become increasingly technical, and the make-up of feed mixtures will be far more scientific.
As Aidan Connolly, Vice President at AllTech, notes, “[In the future] The feed mill, itself, will become ‘smarter’, for example, with the use of Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIR) technology. This allows the analysis of incoming raw materials in real time, allowing reformulation of the diets on a minute-by-minute basis to ensure consistency of each batch manufactured.”
Adding that, “In the future feed systems are likely to become intertwined with information technology, eventually allowing the flow of detail throughout the steps in the food chain whereby farm, feed mill, processing plant, retailer and consumer are connected. In this way, feed availability will be able to mirror demand and, in doing so, dramatically increase efficiency and reduce waste.”
5. Biological Modelling
Connolly also believes that biological analysis in feed manufacturing will also come to the fore, when he states that, “Additionally, rapid, in vitro digestion modelling systems will provide new ways of defining the true nutritional value of raw materials as well as the final feed products leaving the feed mill.”
His vision of the feed industry’s future also includes greater biological analysis of the impact that feed additives on animals, resulting in a more holistic approach. This will create a trend that leads away from a simplistic breakdown of the energy, nutrients and minerals that a specific feed raw material contains.
As he states, “Today, research and commercial applications focus more on modelling the dynamics of nutrient digestion, balance and utilisation, moving away from feeding practices based on the simple nutrient composition. As we develop more advanced technologies for controlling digestion and nutrient utilisation, traditional ways of formulating feeds based on compositional analyses will play a less important role defining feed formulation.”
In conclusion, there are numerous variables that will affect the feed industry over the coming years, of which this article has attempted to list the primary influencers. While uncertainty over government legislation and novel feedstocks may bring cause for concern among feed suppliers and manufacturers, the core trends of increased meat consumption and growing populations should give feed producers optimism for the future.
While feed manufacturers in more traditional economies, such as Europe, may fear that they will not reap the benefits of these trends, the increased efficiencies of IT, real time feed analysis, and improved feed ingredients should ensure that the feed industry remains profitable.
The feed industry may have its uncertainties, but feed producers are sure of at least one thing; livestock and poultry will always need to eat!
Click to read A Vision of The Feed Industry’s Future: Part 1 Ingredients.
AG CHEMI GROUP, who host this website, is a growing supplier of feed grade monocalcium phosphate.
Specification
Ask For Price
Photo Credit: Statista, PorkBusiness, LiveTeenageDream, MotherJones, UniversityofNairobi, Nongmoreport, Daxner, & AGFunder
